ALS: Rare or Not?

[FreddieTheFox]

Is ALS really a rare disease, cause I just heard of a 29 year old woman in Germany (Lori Mai) with ALS competing in IdolsDoes somebody has statistics or something?B.RFreddieTheFox

 

[IguanaIfYouCan]

The chance in developing als is aprox. 1 in 800 along the life. It means that every 800 people born, along their lives, one of them will develop als.In one year, 2 to 5 people in 100.000 will develop als.But most of the patients are older than 40. Hope it helps.

 

[FreddieTheFox]

1 out of 800??????????????? THAT's A LOT!! I think this calculation is even more than cancer.I hope that's a wrong calculation2 to 5 at 100 000 means 1 at 20 000

 

[IguanaIfYouCan]

1 in 800 in the whole life.2 to 5 in 100.000 every year. If we live 75 years, it means 150 to 375 in 100.000 in the hole life.But in one year, only 2 to 5 in 100.000

 

[FreddieTheFox]

You're rightThat's even more scaring because that means: in a lifetime you got the change of 1/300 !!!

 

[IguanaIfYouCan]

Think it in this way:You need 10 classes of high school (30 per class) to find one people that will develop als along their life.I think this is not too much.

 

[BartOne]

Hi Yoddah and FreddieTheFoxThis is a completely wrong calculation. Counting in a lifetime is not steady/You've forgotten for example the birth and death figure each year.So for example Belgium has 10 500 000 people. Each year we have +- 20 000 births and 121 000 deaths (excl ALS deaths)so within 75 years we have 1 500 000 new borns and 9 075 000 deaths. So added 10 500 000 + 1 500 000 + 9 075 000= 21 075 0005 / 100 000 a year and we life 75 years (75 * 5 = 375) so 375 / 100 000 over 75 years but on a total number on 21 075 000 this gives: 1 out of 56 200so: in a life timeThat's why they call it a rare disease...( in case of 1/250 , we would all be in shock right now )

 

[SlavinBreeze]

Something is wrong in your calculation. Better try again.

 

[SlavinBreeze]

Bart, your numbers are wrong. For example, Croatia has a half number of people than Belgium; aprox 5 M. In 2007 we had 42000 new borns and 50000 deaths. Your numbers are twice than ours plus/minus 10% error margin.

 

[FreddieTheFox]

@SlavinBreezeI hope Barts calculation is better than Yoddahs he says 1/800 instead of 1/56200I go for Barts

 

[paulrational]

There is no evidence to prove we can all get it,it is rare....cancer 1 in 3,meaning 66%[or there abouts] will never ever get cancer in their life time,thewwwww!!!!!!

 

[PennyTwitch]

I read that 1 out of 1000 people will develop ALS. Rare...but not as rare as I thought.

 

[cindyandco]

I thought that I had read 2 out of 100,000?

 

[InkedMama]

It is 2 out of 100,000 not 1,000. I was told by my Neuro. Lovely

 

[SlavinBreeze]

2-3 out of 100.000 or 1:33.000That's nothing to me. It's a better chance to bite the bullet in the street or in the nite club looking from my living perspective (not a joke; as you know I am D.J.). Today, for me, ALS is far far away.

 

[zEarthyRanger]

"Lifetime chances" aren't really helpful, particularly with diseases that tend to strike older people. Live long enough and it's pretty likely you'll get cancer (one in three or so). That doesn't mean it is likely you have cancer now.Similarly your concern with *** should be - what are the chances that I have *** right now? And the answer is - very, very low.In a similar vein: you have a 1/1 chance of dying of something at some point. Your chances of dying tomorrow are pretty small. Something's going to get you in the end. But the odds say it won't happen just yet.I'd run with that.

 

[BandersnatchF]

Your lifetime chance of getting ALS is about 1 in 1000. Your chances of getting ALS in any given year are about 1 in 50,000. For those who see the "1 in 1000" lifetime odds and get worried, consider that your lifetime chances of dying of cancer are about 1 in 4, of a car accident about 1 in 150, and of something are pretty close to 1 in 1 (most people alive today will die eventually, much as we don't want to think about it).