MND Risk for Twitchers: Rationale Fear?

suga1

Member
Since I am a twitcher , and since I experience the occasional new symptom (like these days jerking of the thumb/forefinger) I am familiar with the "I feel better Yeehaw :D) / OMG it's a MND :( " roller coaster. How rationale is our MND fear, given the fact that we are twitchers? I looked at insurance and medical statistics about the change to get a MND if you're switching against the probability of passing away from a car accident. About MND: Wikipedia says that 1 people per 100,00 get ALS each year . Out of htese, about 6% had fasciculations as part of their initial complain (the highest number I have seen - so worst case scenario and that does **NOT** mean that fascics were the only presenting issues , just that patients did not know - unlike us - that other issues were related: weakness essentially ). So every year, there will be 1/100,000 * 0.06 * 300,000,000 (US population) = 0.0000006 *300,000,000 = 180 people in the US who will end up with a MND diagnostic and who complained about fasciculations when they saw their docs (again, does not mean that fascics were the only presenting factor) Well, that not much.Now look at the URL (don't know if URLs are allowed here): "odds of dying , insurance information institute", and you will see that the one-year odds of dying in a car accident is 1/6700, (normalized to all US population, i.e. whether or not you actually drive a car). That's 45,000 persons who will pass away on the road this year...so, 180 on the one hand, 45,000 on the other hand ... 250 times more "chances" to die in your car than to actually have health issues somehow more or less related to fasciculations ..imagine if our level of anxiety about MNDs was proportionally the same about cars: we would have a heart attack just by looking at a car... That would make car salespersons the most dangerous beings around for us (speaking of dangerous persons, 12,000 people in the US will die of gun wounds this year... according to the same insurance bureau statistics.)Talk about US being irrational beings...
 
So what you are saying is we are pretty much doomed to getting in a car accident! Geeeeze just when i thought it was safe to breathe easy I will never drive again (wait I cant afford a car anyway) lol:D)
 
:LOL: Well the same insurance statistics say that the life time odds of having a car accident is 1:83 :eek: :eek: :eek: ( URL: )the lifetime odds of being killed by lightening is about the same as of having ALS.. It's even slightly more probable !!
 
AllGoodHere,Do you live in Central Florida? I think that is top in the state. I live in SW Florida and the lightening is really bad here.CDC
 
I think the negative EMG and the time variable that was hinted in the previous post has been misseed in your elegant analysis. Tell us more..:)
 
>Bandersnatch_F wrote: "OK, I'll take this one on—as a researcher, this is a pretty straightforward application of . We just need to know some probabilities:"Man, I am so humbled by your link to Wikipedia on Bayesian statistics. Really who am I to dare to discuss numbers without proper references to Wikipedia' clear and infinite source of knowledge ???>Bandersnatch_F wrote: " Probability that someone will twitch this year for any reason: 1 in 100"Where does that comes from? The scalar product of the Eiffel tower's diameter with of the variance of Queen Victoria's feet length, in avoirdupois units? (add proper wikipedia references) ...
 

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