StoneLeopard
Well-known member
For all you math and statistics whizzes out there ... I'm trying to calculate the chances of getting bulbar-onset ***. Anyone know if I'm doing this right?The approx. incidence (chances) of getting *** are about 1 out of 100,000 (ranges from 1-4 depending on who you read, but it doesn't change the calculation drastically).In my ethnic group, the male to female ratio is 3:1, and I'm male. So that means that out of every 4 people diagnosed with ***, 3 will be male, 1 female. So out of 400,000 healthy people, 3 males will be diagnosed with *** and 1 female will be. In other words, the chances of me as a male getting *** at this point in the calculation is 3/400,000, or 0.00075%.Let's go further. Bulbar-onset occurs in about 1/3 of cases. So take that 400,000 people and expand the pool by 3 times to 1.2 million. 3 males in 1.2 million will get bulbar *** and 1 female will get it. Or another way, take that 0.00075% and multiply it by 1/3. EIther way, you get 0.00025%. Let's go even further. In my ethnic group, bulbar onset occurs at a mean age of 53 years (even higher for caucasian people), with a standard deviation of about 12 years. That means that about two-thrids of people in my group who get bulbar *** will be between the ages of 41 and 65. If you go another standard deviation out, it means that 95% of people in my group who get bulbar *** will be between the ages of 29 and 77. Meaning out of 100 people in my ethnic group diagnosed with bulbar onset ***, 10 of them will be either younger than 29 or older than 77. Let's split it evenly, so let's say that out of 100 people diagnosed with bulbar ***, 5 of them will be 29 or younger. So if you're 29 or younger in my group, your chances of getting bulbar onset are 5%. Let's say since I am 32, my chances are a bit higher, maybe 10%. So going back to the 0.00025%, multiply it by 10%, which gives you 0.000025%.So, in my ethnic group and at my age, the chances of getting bulbar onset *** are 0.000025%. Does my math check out?
